According to the predictions of the Multi-Sectoral El Niño Phenomenon Research Committee (ENFEN) of Peru, the La Niña phenomenon is expected to gradually weaken, and it is anticipated that ocean conditions will remain neutral until April 2025, although negative anomalies may occur.
In a recent official statement, ENFEN confirmed the ocean-atmosphere conditions and forecasts for the Pacific regions 1+2, noting that the alert status of the system remains "inactive." This decision is based on analyses by ENFEN experts, who referenced observational data and climate models from both domestic and international sources.
It is expected that anchovy spawning activities in northern and central Peru will accelerate in the coming weeks. As for cod, the availability of cod resources along the coastal areas from northern Peru to Sechura is expected to be comparable to the levels seen in August and early September. Meanwhile, the fishing activities for Peruvian squid (also known as "Pota") along the central coastal region of Peru are expected to remain stable.
Regarding the coastal region of Peru, the seasonal climate forecast from September to November indicates that the minimum temperatures in the coastal area are expected to remain normal or below normal levels. Precipitation is expected to stay within the normal range.
According to ENFEN's forecast, there is a higher likelihood of a weak La Niña phenomenon occurring in the central Pacific region from October 2024 to March 2025. On the other hand, in the Pacific zones 1+2, ocean conditions are expected to remain neutral until April 2025, although negative anomalies may occur.It is expected that during the summer period from December 2024 to March 2025, the intensity of the La Niña phenomenon in the central Pacific will be relatively weak, while the climatic conditions in the Pacific regions 1 and 2 will remain normal.